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ROAD ACCIDENTS SCOTLAND 1999

2. Accidents

2.1 Accidents by police force area (see Table 3)

The numbers of fatal accidents in some police force areas are small, and may show large percentage swings from year to year: for example, the number of fatal accidents in Grampian was 46 in 1997, 51 in 1998 and 35 in 1999. Therefore, between 1998 and 1999, one would expect to find increases in the numbers of fatal accidents in some police force areas, and decreases in other areas. However, since the total for Scotland as a whole fell by almost 20%, it is not surprising to find that all but one force had a reduction in the number of fatal accidents in its area.

Looking at the figures over the longer-term, the number of fatal accidents in Scotland in 1999 was 51% less than the 1981-85 average, and the figures for individual police force areas were all between 26% and 67% less than the 1981-85 average levels. The annual fluctuations in the numbers of fatal accidents in individual areas mean that an area whose figure in 1998 was well below the 1981-85 average level could show a much smaller decrease from the 1981-85 average in 1999, and vice versa.

The number of fatal and serious accidents (added together) in Scotland fell by 170 in 1999. For individual police force areas, the change between 1998 and 1999 varied between a fall of 24% and a rise of 8%. Compared with the 1981-85 average, in 1999 the Scottish total was 53% lower, and all police areas showed substantial reductions, ranging from 41% (Dumfries & Galloway) to 70% (Lothian & Borders).

While the total number of injury accidents (of all severities) in Scotland in 1999 fell by 7%, the changes for individual areas varied from a fall of less than 1% to a fall of 15%.  Compared with the 1981-85 average, the Scottish total was 25% lower, and all police areas showed reductions, ranging from 13% in Northern to 43% in Grampian.

2.2 Accidents by road type and severity (see Table 4)

Table 4 shows figures on the basis of the road network at the time of the accident, and on the basis of the "post- 1 April 1996" network. It also provides percentage changes which have been adjusted (using the method described in Annex E) to take account of the changes to the road networks that were made on 1st April 1996 (as best as one can take account of such changes, from the information which is available).

Trunk roads accounted for only small proportions of the total numbers of accidents in 1999: very roughly, just over a quarter of fatal accidents, a sixth of the total of fatal and serious accidents, and around a seventh of all accidents. The trunk road network’s shares of accident numbers in previous years were broadly similar.

Comparison of the two sets of 1992-95 averages that appear in the table (one set calculated on the basis of the road network at the time, the other calculated on the basis of the road network from 1st April 1996) shows that the changes to the road networks that were made on 1st April 1996 had little effect on the trunk road network’s overall share of the numbers of accidents in Scotland as a whole. (The changes may, of course, have had a much greater effect on the trunk road network’s share in certain parts of Scotland.)

In general, compared with the 1981-85 averages, the numbers of accidents fell more rapidly on local authority roads than on trunk roads - for example, the 1999 figure for accidents of all severities on local authority roads was 26% below the 1981-85 average compared with 18% lower for trunk roads. When considering such comparisons, one must remember that the percentage changes since 1981-85 for different types of road will be affected by the transfer of traffic away from some roads by the opening of city and town bypasses, and by the construction of new roads with higher average traffic volumes. Therefore, such figures do not provide an accurate measure of the comparative change in the road safety performance of different types of road.

2.3 Accident rates (see Table 5)

In this edition, two new parts have been added to Table 5. The first part of the table shows the numbers of accidents which occurred, by severity and type of road. The second part shows the accident rates (the number of accidents per 100 million vehicle kilometres) which are calculated by dividing the numbers of accidents on each type of road by the estimated volumes of traffic on those roads, which were provided by the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions. As there are no reliable traffic estimates of the total volume of traffic on minor roads (B, C and unclassified roads) prior to 1998, accident rates for minor roads are only available for 1998 onwards.

Accident rates on major roads (Motorways and A roads) have fallen markedly over the past ten years. The fatal accident rate has dropped from 1.6 per 100 million vehicle kilometres in 1989 to 0.7 in 1999; the "fatal and serious" accident rate fell from 15.6 to 6.9; and the overall accident rate (all severities) reduced from 47.6 per 100 million vehicle kilometres to 28.1. Motorways had consistently lower accident rates than A roads, and minor roads appear to have generally higher accident rates than major roads. Accident rates tend to be higher for "built-up" roads (roads with speed limits of up to 40mph) than for "non built-up" roads (ones with higher speed limits).

Estimates for the total volume of traffic by police force area are only available for "major" roads. The third part of the table shows that accident rates on major roads vary considerably by police area. Some of this variation may be attributed to the distribution of traffic by road type within individual areas. The accident rates for trunk roads were calculated by dividing the total number of accidents which occurred in 1997 to 1999 on the roads which formed the trunk road network by the total of the estimated volumes of traffic in 1997 to 1999 on the trunk road network. The rates for local authority major roads were calculated in a similar way.

2.4 Accidents by month by road type (see Table 6)

The numbers of injury accidents over the years 1995-99 were fairly evenly spread throughout the year, with minor peaks in August, October and November, which were only 7 - 11% above the average monthly number of accidents. Fatal and serious accidents (taken together) were similarly well spread across the months, and their minor peaks, which occurred in August, October and November, were only 5 - 16% above the monthly average. (To allow more equitable comparisons the months are standardised to 30 days.)

On average, there were 27 fatal accidents per month in the years 1995 to 1999. The number did not vary greatly between the months: the lowest average was 21, and the highest was 34.

2.5 Accidents by light condition (see Table 7)

The severity of accidents is associated with the light conditions, and also with whether the accident occurs on a built-up road or on a non built-up road.  Presumably, because of the higher average speeds on non built-up roads, severity rates are higher on non built-up roads than on built-up roads. And presumably, because of poorer visibility, severity rates are higher in darkness than in daylight. For example, taking the annual averages for 1995-99, 5.2% of injury road accidents on non built-up roads in darkness (86 out of 1,645) resulted in one (or more) deaths compared with 1.6% of accidents on built-up roads in darkness (47 out of 2,983) and 3.5% of accidents on non built-up roads in daylight (135 out of 3,894). Similarly, the percentage of accidents classified as either fatal or serious is higher for non built-up roads in darkness than for either built-up roads in darkness or non built-up roads in daylight.

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