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ROAD ACCIDENTS SCOTLAND 1999

Commentary

1. Trends in the numbers of Road Accidents and Casualties

1.1 Main Points

Table 1 provides figures for the population of Scotland, the numbers of vehicles licensed, the total road length in Scotland, the volume of traffic on major roads (motorways and A roads), the numbers of injury road accidents, the numbers of vehicles involved and the numbers of casualties. The numbers of injury road accidents were first recorded separately in 1966, while the numbers of casualties are available back to 1938. Information on the severities of the accidents, and of the injuries suffered by the casualties, is provided in Table 2. The trends since 1966 in the numbers of injury road accidents and the numbers of casualties are illustrated in Figures 1 and 2. Figure 3 shows how the numbers of casualties have changed since 1981, and how they compare with the average for the period 1981-85. Figure 3 also indicates how much progress has been made towards the Government’s target of reducing the number of casualties by one-third from the 1981-85 average level by the year 2000.

The numbers of injury road accidents have fallen in most of the past few years. In 1999, the number of fatal accidents fell by 54 to 285. This led to the lowest number of deaths since the current records began, more than fifty years ago. The number of serious injury accidents in 1999 (3,201) fell by 116 to the lowest number since the records of serious accidents began in 1970, having fallen 53% below the 1981-85 average. The number of "slight injury" accidents (11,912) in 1999 was 7% less than in the previous year and about 9% less than the 1981-85 average.

The number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 1999 was 310, a decrease of 75 (almost 20%) over 1998. The 1999 figure was the lowest number recorded for at least 50 years. While the figures show a clear long-term downward trend between 1982 and 1994, subsequently the numbers had appeared to be levelling-off, with little change between 1995 and 1998, until the fall in 1999, to a level which is nearly 52% below the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year.

There were 3,757 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 1999, 314 (8%) less than in 1998. This was the lowest number since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950, and is almost 55% below the 1981-85 average level. Again, it had appeared that the numbers were levelling-off, since there had been very little change between 1996 and 1998.

In 1999, 16,909 people were recorded as slightly injured. This is the second lowest of the figures recorded in the past 40 years, and was 1,102 (6%) less than in 1998. However, it is only 7% below the 1981-85 average level.

The total number of casualties in 1999 was 20,976. This was 1,491 (7%) less than in 1998, and was the lowest figure for more than 40 years. It is 23% below the 1981-85 average level. Until 1999, the numbers seemed to have been levelling off, remaining between 21,700 and 22,700 in each of the years from 1993 to 1998.

The reductions in the numbers of accidents and casualties compared with the 1981-85 annual averages are even more significant given that the number of vehicles licensed in Scotland in 1999 was 50% higher than the 1981-85 average, and that traffic on major roads in Scotland in 1999 was estimated to have grown by around a third since the targets for 2000 were set in 1987.

1.2 Accidents

In 1966 there were just over 23,200 injury road accidents and the annual total remained around this level until 1973. Numbers then dropped considerably in 1974 and 1975 to about 20,600. This was the time of a fuel crisis when a national speed limit of 50 mph was introduced and the volume of traffic in Great Britain fell by 3% in 1974. Accident numbers increased again in 1976 and reached a peak of nearly 23,100 in 1979.

In the early 1980s numbers began to fall, and did so particularly sharply in 1983 when the total number of injury accidents fell by 7% in a single year to 19,400, serious accidents fell by 13% to just over 6,400, and fatal accidents fell by 11% to 568. The year 1983 was when the 1981 Transport Act came into force and changed the law relating to drink driving, with the introduction of evidential breath testing. Compulsory front seat belt wearing and new procedures for licensing learner motor cyclists were also introduced in 1983. After 1983 the total number of injury accidents increased again to over 20,600 in 1985, and the number of serious accidents rose to just over 6,500 while fatal accidents continued to fall.

In 1987 the Government adopted a target to reduce road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 annual average by the year 2000 (see the Introduction). The 1981-85 annual average for the total number of injury accidents was just under 20,500, for serious accidents it was just over 6,800, and for fatal accidents it was 581.

By 1987 the total number of injury accidents had fallen to under 18,700, 9% less than the 1981-85 average, but in 1989 it was up again to just over 20,600, just above the 1981-85 average.

1989 was the most recent peak in the total number of injury accidents. (In contrast, in 1989, serious accidents, at just over 5,800, and fatal accidents, at 496, were both 15% less than the 1981-85 average.) Since 1989, the total number of injury accidents has fallen in 8 out of 10 years, and in 1999 it was at the lowest level ever recorded. The 1999 figure of 15,398 was 7% less than in 1998, and 25% less than the 1981-85 annual average.

In recent years, the numbers of fatal accidents have fallen considerably: from the 1981-85 average level of 581 to 285 in 1999, the lowest ever recorded, 16% fewer than in the previous year and 51% below the 1981-85 average.

For serious accidents, the trend has also been downwards. The number of serious accidents has fallen from the 1981-85 average level of just over 6,800, to 3,201 in 1999, the lowest number ever recorded, and 53% below the 1981-85 average.

The numbers of slight accidents have not changed so much over the years: while sometimes rising and sometimes falling, they have remained between about 12,000 and 15,000 since 1970. The 1999 figure of 11,912 was the lowest since slight accident numbers were first recorded in 1970, but is only 1,151 (9%) lower than the 1981-85 average of 13,063.

1.3 Casualties

As the numbers of accidents have fallen, so have the numbers of casualties. Therefore, this section does not repeat the previous section’s detailed analysis of the way in which the numbers have changed over the past 30 years.

Numbers fatally injured

The number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 1999 was 310. This was the lowest figure since the current records began over 50 years ago. With a few exceptions, there has been a fall in each year since 1978, and for most of that period the figures show a clear, steady long-term downward trend, particularly between 1982 and 1994. The number of fatal casualties had then appeared to be levelling off, until the large percentage fall in 1999. The 1999 figure is 18% below the average for the previous five years (378).

The 1999 figure was 52% below the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year, and therefore the Government’s target of a one-third reduction by the year 2000 has already been reached for fatalities.

Numbers seriously injured

There were 3,757 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 1999: 314 (8%) less than in 1998: previously, the figures from 1996 to 1998 had appeared to indicate little change, all being between about 4,040 and 4,070. The 1999 figure is the lowest number since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950. The long term trend shows that the number of serious casualties peaked in the early 1970's at around 10,000 and has generally been falling since the early 1980's.

The 1999 figure is almost 55% below the 1981-85 average, so this target has been reached before the year 2000.

Numbers slightly injured

There were 16,909 people recorded as slightly injured in 1999: 1,102 (6%) less than in 1998 and is the second lowest number recorded in over 40 years (1995 was the lowest with only 16,855). However, there is a suggestion that the numbers may now be levelling-off, since over the period from 1993 the numbers have fluctuated between about 16,900 and 18,200: a range of only 1,300.

The 1999 figure of 16,909 is only 7.4% below the 1981-85 average and so is considerably above the year 2000 target of a one-third reduction.

Total numbers of casualties

The total number of casualties (of all severities) in 1999 was 20,976, 1,491 (7%) less than in 1998. The total number of casualties had fallen markedly from the level of the most recent "short-term" peak (which was over 27,000 in 1989 and 1990) and appeared to be levelling off, with the figures for each of the years from 1993 to 1998 being all within about 600 (3%) of the average for that period of 22,332. However, 1999 was the lowest for more than 40 years.

The 1999 total was 23% below the 1981-85 average, and therefore above the target line.

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