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ROAD ACCIDENTS SCOTLAND 1999

Introduction

This publication presents statistics, for 1999 and earlier years, of the numbers of injury road accidents (that is, road accidents in which one or more people are injured or killed) which were recorded by the police in Scotland. Annex B describes the method of collection of the statistics. Each accident is classified according to the severity of the injury to the most seriously injured casualty who was involved in the accident.

Following this Introduction, this publication has four parts. The first is a summary section showing the main trends in the numbers of road accidents and casualties up to the most recent year for which statistics are available. The second section contains a commentary, which includes descriptions of the trends in the numbers of road accidents and casualties, more detailed analyses (of the numbers of accidents, of the statistics about motorists, and of the numbers of casualties) and comparisons of the Scottish figures with those of some other countries. The third part consists of the charts and statistical tables. The fourth part includes a number of annexes, such as a calendar of events affecting road traffic, notes on the collection of road accident statistics, the definitions of various terms, and information about the changes to the trunk road network. There is also an Index, and information about some other Scottish Executive publications.

The status of the statistics

The data from which the statistics in this publication were compiled were extracted from the Road Accidents statistical database towards the end of January 2001. The statistics given here may therefore differ slightly from those published elsewhere (such as in the statistical bulletin "Key Road Accident Statistics") because they were extracted on a different date, and the database may have changed between the two dates due to (eg) late returns, or due to late corrections being made to returns which had been received earlier. For similar reasons, the statistics given in this publication for 1998 and earlier years may differ slightly from the previously-published figures for those years.

The years covered in the tables

Some tables have figures for several individual years (eg for each year from 1995 to 1999) so that any trends in the key statistics can be seen. However, the more detailed tables provide figures only in the form of 5-year annual averages (for the years 1995-99), and do not give figures for the latest single year. If readers need versions of the detailed tables for single years, they can be provided on request (a charge may be made).

Some of the detailed tables in some earlier editions of the publication have not been repeated since because, in most cases, the statistics do not vary significantly between years. A list of statistics covered in more detail in previous editions can be found at the end of the Index. It is not known whether any of these tables will be updated in subsequent editions. Readers may request updated versions of such tables (for which a charge may be made).

Some of the tables giving the numbers of drivers who were breath-tested have figures for 1985 and 1986, then a gap of several years, and then figures for the latest few years. The years 1985 and 1986 were included in these tables because, in December 1985, the Scottish Police authorities introduced a policy of breath-testing all drivers involved in an accident, wherever possible.

The Government’s target for reducing Road Accident casualties by the year 2000: comparisons with the annual averages for 1981-85

In many of the tables, the figures for 1999, or the annual averages for 1995 to 1999, are compared with the annual averages for 1981-85. This is done because, in 1987, the Government adopted the target of reducing the number of road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 average level by the year 2000. One way to assess progress towards this target is to compare actual casualties in each year after 1987 with an indicative line starting at the actual number of casualties in 1987 (the year of adopting the target), and assuming a constant percentage reduction in each subsequent year, down to the target figure for the year 2000. On this target line, total casualty numbers for the year 1999 should be about 31.7% below the 1981-85 average.

This "target line" is not a straight line, because each year’s fall is calculated by applying a constant percentage reduction to the target line’s number of casualties in the previous year (which reduces each year). The total number of casualties in the year 2000 would be two-thirds of the 1981-85 average level if there were a constant reduction of about 2.38% (compound) each year after 1987. The calculation of the 2.38% is as follows:

The calculation of the 1999 "target line" figure is as follows. As 1999 is twelve years after 1987, the 1999 "target line" figure is found by applying a compound reduction of 2.38% per year for twelve years to the 1987 figure of 24,748. The result is a 1999 "target line" figure of 18,536 which is 31.7% below the 1981-85 average of 27,142.

Repeating this calculation for different types of casualty gives different annual percentage reductions. This is because, in each case, the 1987 actual figure, which is the "starting position" for the line, represents a different percentage of the 1981-85 average level. It follows that one needs a different value for each type of casualty for the constant compound percentage reduction each year after 1987 in order for its year 2000 figure to be two-thirds of the 1981-85 average level for that type of casualty.

Reducing Road Accident casualties by the year 2010:

In March 2000, the UK Government, the Scottish Executive and the National Assembly for Wales announced a new road safety strategy and casualty reduction targets for 2010. The new targets, which are given in the document "Tomorrow's roads- safer for everyone", are based on the annual average casualty levels over the period 1994 to 1998, and are for:

• a 40% reduction in the number of people killed or seriously injured in road traffic accidents.
• a 50% reduction in the number of children killed or seriously injured; and
• a 10% reduction in the slight casualty rate, expressed as the number of people slightly injured per 100 million vehicle kilometres

Table 44 shows the "baseline" figures for each local authority area for the first two targets, along with the corresponding figures for 1999. Further statistics relating to the new targets will appear in subsequent editions of "Road Accidents Scotland".

Main changes in this edition:

In 1999, there were several changes to the definitions and the information collected by the road accident statistics system, following the implementation of the recommendations of the 1997 Quinquennial Review (see Annex B). This has resulted in some minor alterations to the tables in this publication.

For a full list of variables replaced, renamed or deleted, please see Annex B. This also shows the number of cases for each of the new codes which was introduced in 1999 - for example, the number of cases where "vehicle type" was recorded using the new code for "ridden horse". Because the numbers of cases recorded for some of the new codes were small, they have not been shown separately in the main tables (eg "ridden horse" is included in the "other" vehicle type in the tables.)

A new summary section has been created. This contains graphs which show the main trends in the numbers of vehicles licenced, fatal, serious and slight accidents, and casualty numbers (five year moving averages) from when the current statistics of road accidents and casualties began up to the latest year. The summary section also includes a table giving some key statistics for the past ten years, plus a selection of main points.

A number of other changes have been made:

• Table 1: now includes a new column which shows the estimated total volume of traffic on major roads (Motorways and A roads). In addition, the numbers shown for "vehicles licensed" have been revised and now relate to all motor vehicles (including the numbers of exempt vehicles, which were previously excluded).
• Table 5: has two new parts, which give the numbers of accidents by road class and, for the first time, accident rates per million vehicle kilometre for minor roads (B, C and unclassified roads).
• Table 17 in previous editions (Vehicles involved and licensed in Scotland) has been deleted. The statistics that it provided can all be obtained from the numbers in Table 1.
• Tables 18 and 19 now become tables 17 and 18 respectively.
• A new Table 19 has been added giving the estimated approximate distance between the home of the driver or rider of the vehicle and the location of the accident.
• A new Table 43 has been added giving the estimated approximate distance between the home of the casualty and the location of accident.
• A new Table 44 has been added, showing the 1994-98 averages (the baseline for the new targets for 2010) and the 1999 numbers of fatal and serious casualties, for all ages and for child casualties, by council and road type.

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