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2. Accidents
2.1 Accidents by police force area (see Table 3)
The numbers of fatal accidents in some police force areas are small, and may show large percentage swings from year to year: for example, the number of fatal accidents in Northern was 26 in 1996, 41 in 1997 and 39 in 1998. Therefore, it is not surprising that, between 1997 and 1998, there were increases in the numbers of fatal accidents in some police force areas, and decreases in other areas.
Looking at the figures over the longer-term, the number of fatal accidents in Scotland in 1998 was 42% less than the 1981-85 average, and the figures for individual police force areas were all between 16% and 54% less than the 1981-85 average levels. The annual fluctuations in the numbers of fatal accidents in individual areas mean that an area whose figure in 1997 was well below the 1981-85 average level could show a much smaller decrease from the 1981-85 average in 1998, and vice versa.
The number of fatal and serious accidents (added together) in Scotland rose by one in 1998. For individual police force areas, the change between 1997 and 1998 varied between a fall of 21% and a rise of 17%. Compared with the 1981-85 average, in 1998 the Scottish total was 51% lower, and all police areas showed substantial reductions, ranging from 22% (Dumfries & Galloway) to 72% (Lothian & Borders).
While the total number of injury accidents (of all severities) in Scotland in 1998 fell by 1%, the changes for individual areas varied from a fall of 9% to a rise of 8%.Compared with the 1981-85 average, the Scottish total was 19% lower, and all police areas showed reductions, ranging from 9% in Northern and Lothian & Borders to 40% in Fife.
2.2 Accidents by road type and severity (see Table 4)
Table 4 shows figures on the basis of the road network at the time of the accident, and on the basis of the "post- 1 April 1996" network. It also provides percentage changes which have been adjusted (using the method described in Annex E) to take account of the changes to the road networks that were made on 1st April 1996 (as best as one can take account of such changes, from the information which is available).
Trunk roads accounted for only small proportions of the total numbers of accidents in 1998: very roughly, just under a third of fatal accidents, a sixth of the total of fatal and serious accidents, and around a seventh of all accidents. The trunk road network’s shares of accident numbers in previous years were similar.
Comparison of the two sets of 1992-95 averages that appear in the table (one set calculated on the basis of the road network at the time, the other calculated on the basis of the road network from 1st April 1996) shows that the changes to the road networks that were made on 1st April 1996 had little effect on the trunk road network’s overall share of the numbers of accidents in Scotland as a whole. (The changes may, of course, have had a much greater effect on the trunk road network’s share in certain parts of Scotland.)
In general, compared with the 1981-85 averages, the numbers of accidents fell more rapidly on local authority roads than on trunk roads - for example, the 1998 figure for accidents of all severities on local authority roads was 20% below the 1981-85 average compared with 12% lower for trunk roads. When considering such comparisons, one must remember that the percentage changes since 1981-85 for different types of road will be affected by the transfer of traffic away from some roads by the opening of city and town bypasses, and by the construction of new roads with higher average traffic volumes. Therefore, such figures do not provide an accurate measure of the comparative change in the road safety performance of different types of road.
2.3 Accident rates on major roads by police area (see Table 5)
Motorways and A roads are collectively referred to as "major" roads. Accidents rates based on traffic on major roads in Scotland vary considerably by police area. Some of this variation may be attributed to the distribution of traffic by road type within individual areas. The accident rates for trunk roads have been calculated by dividing the total number of accidents which occurred in 1996 to 1998 on the roads which formed the trunk road network by the total of the estimated volumes of traffic in 1996 to 1998 on the trunk road network. The rates for local authority major roads were calculated in a similar way.
Local authority built-up ‘A’ roads had the highest accident rate on major roads: 63 accidents (all severities) per 100 million vehicle kilometres. Non built-up local authority ‘A’ roads had the highest fatality rate: 1.3 fatal accidents per 100 million vehicle kilometres. The accident rates on Motorways are much lower than those for all other types of major roads.
2.4 Accidents by month by road type (see Table6)
The numbers of injury accidents over the years 1994-98 were fairly evenly spread throughout the year, with minor peaks in August, October and November, which were only 9 - 10% above the average monthly number of accidents. Fatal and serious accidents (taken together) were similarly well spread across the months, and their minor peaks, which occurred in August and October, were only 9 - 14% above the monthly average. (To allow more equitable comparisons the months are standardised to 30 days.)
On average, there were 28 fatal accidents per month in the years 1994 to 1998. The number did not vary greatly between the months: the lowest average was 22, and the highest was 35.
2.5 Accidents by light condition (see Table7)
The severity of accidents is associated with the light conditions, and also with whether the accident occurs on a "built-up" road (a road with a speed limit of up to 40mph) or on a "non built-up" road (one with a higher speed limit).Presumably, because of the higher average speeds on non built-up roads, severity rates are higher on non built-up roads than on built-up roads. And presumably, because of poorer visibility, severity rates are higher in darkness than in daylight. For example, taking the annual averages for 1994-98, 5.4% of injury road accidents on non built-up roads in darkness (89 out of 1,659) resulted in one (or more) deaths compared with 1.6% of accidents on built-up roads in darkness (49 out of 3,122) and 3.6% of accidents on non built-up roads in daylight (138 out of 3,869). Similarly, the percentage of accidents classified as either fatal or serious is higher for non built-up roads in darkness than for either built-up roads in darkness or non built-up roads in daylight.
3. Motorists, breath testing and drink-driving
3.1 Car driver accident rates (see Table 22)
All car drivers involved in injury accidents are included in this table, whether they were injured or not, on the basis of whatever information is known about their ages and their sex. For example, someone whose sex was known, but whose age was not known, will be included in the "all ages" total for the appropriate sex. The grand total includes those for whom neither the age nor the sex was known.
As the car driver accident rates that are shown for each sex and age group are on a "per head of population" basis, rather than being based upon the numbers of driving licence holders or upon the distance driven, they can provide only a general indication of the relative accident rates for each group. The statistics do not provide a measure of the relative risk of each group as car drivers, because they do not take account of the differing levels of car driving by each group.
Car driver accident rates per head of population vary markedly by age and sex. The peak occurs for males in the 17-22 age group, with a rate of 12.6 per thousand population in 1998. This rate is more than double that for females of the same age (5.5 per thousand in 1998), and is almost double the rate for males aged 30-59 (6.6 per thousand in 1998).
The overall male car driver accident rate in 1998 (6.9 per thousand) was less than in the previous year, and this was the case for each age-group. The overall female car driver accident rate in 1998 (3.3 per thousand) was the same as the previous year, but there were increases in most age groups.
There has been a substantial rise in female car driver accident rates since 1981-85, particularly among the younger age groups. In 1998 the car driver accident rate for 17-22 year old females was almost double the level of the 1981-85 annual average. The increases for the other age groups were: 78% for 23-29; 60% for 30-59; and 38% for 60+.
In contrast, male car driver accident rates have fallen over the same period by 16%, with reductions for all groups except the young drivers, aged 17-22, whose car driver accident rate has risen by 2%. Consequently the ratio of male to female car driver accident rates has fallen from4.0:1for the 1981-85 annual average to 2.1:1 in 1998.
3.2 Breath testing of drivers (see Tables 23, 24 and 25)
These tables cover all motorists who were known to be involved in injury road accidents (the figures do not include, for example, those involved in "hit and run" accidents who were not traced). For these tables, a motorist is defined as the driver or the rider of a motor vehicle, including (eg) a motorcyclist. It should be noted that some of the figures for 1985 differ greatly from those for 1986, because in December 1985 the Scottish Police authorities introduced a policy of breath-testing all drivers in an accident, wherever possible.
In 1998, 68% of motorists involved in accidents were asked for a breath test (the percentage varied among the police forces, from about 58% to around 84%). The breath test proved positive (or the motorist refused to take the test) in 3.0% of these cases. This represented 2.1% of the total number of motorists involved (including those who were not asked for a breath test). While these percentages have not changed much in the past five years, over the longer-term there appears to have been a reduction in both the numbers and the proportion of "drink drivers": the number of "positive / refused breath test" cases fell from 1,118 in 1986 to 547 in 1998, and from 3.8% to 2.1% as a percentage of all motorists involved in accidents.
Tables 24 and 25 show the figures for each time of day on different days of the week, and for a number of years. In 1998, 44% of the "positive / refused" cases occurred between 9 p.m. and 3 a.m. Between midnight and 6 a.m., the number of "positive / refused" cases, expressed as a percentage of motorists involved in accidents, varied from about 10% to around 20%, depending upon the day of the week, and was much higher than at other times of the day. The period from 9 p.m. to midnight had the second highest number of "positive / refused" cases, but the equivalent percentage was not as high (varying between 4% and 9%), because between 9 p.m. and midnight there were many more accidents than between midnight and 3 a.m.
3.3 Drink-drive accidents and casualties (see Table 26)
Table 26 shows the estimates (made by the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions) of the numbers of injury road accidents involving illegal alcohol levels. They are higher than the number of drivers with positive breath test results (or who refused to take the breath test) because they include allowances for the numbers of cases where drivers were not breath tested because of the severity of their injuries, or because they left the scene of the accident. Information about the blood alcohol levels of road users who died within 12 hours of being injured in a road accident is supplied by the Procurators Fiscal.
The estimates show that the numbers of drink-drive accidents and casualties fell by 44% between 1987 and 1997 (the latest year for which estimates are available): from 1,420 to 790 (accidents) and from 2,190 to 1,220 (casualties). The number of people killed as a result of drink-drive accidents is estimated to have more than halved (from 100 in 1987 to 40 in 1997), and the number of serious casualties is estimated to have dropped by around 57% (from 670 in 1987 to 290 in 1997).
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