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1. Trends in the numbers of Road Accidents and Casualties
1.1 Main Points
Table 1 provides figures for the population of Scotland, the numbers of vehicles licensed, the total road length in Scotland, the numbers of injury road accidents, the numbers of vehicles involved and the numbers of casualties. The numbers of injury road accidents were first recorded separately in 1966, while the numbers of casualties are available back to 1938. Information on the severities of the accidents, and of the injuries suffered by the casualties, is provided in Table 2. The trends since 1966 in the numbers of injury road accidents and the numbers of casualties are illustrated in Figures 1 and 2. Figure 3 shows how the numbers of casualties have changed since 1981, and how they compare with the average for the period 1981-85. Figure 3 also indicates how much progress has been made towards the Government’s target of reducing the number of casualties by one-third from the 1981-85 average level by the year 2000.
The numbers of injury road accidents have fallen in most of the past few years. In 1998, the number of fatal accidents fell by 1 to 339. This number is the third lowest on record. The number of serious injury accidents (3,314) is the second lowest since the records of the numbers of injury road accidents began, having fallen by more than 50% since 1980. The number of "slight injury" accidents (12,861) in 1998 was slightly lower than the previous year.
The number of people fatally injured in road accidents in Scotland in 1998 was 385, an increase of eight (2%) over 1997. However, the 1998 figure was the fourth lowest number recorded for at least 50 years. While the figures show a clear long-term downward trend between 1982 and 1994, the numbers have been levelling-off in recent years. The 1998 figure was 40% below the 1981-85 average number of fatalities per year.
There were 4,066 people recorded as seriously injured in road accidents in 1998, 19 (0.5%) more than in 1997. This was the third lowest number since records of the numbers of serious injuries began in 1950, and is 51% below the 1981-85 average level. Again, it appears that the numbers may now be levelling-off: the figures for the latest three years show little change.
In 1998, 18,006 people were recorded as slightly injured. This is lower than most of the figures recorded in the past 40 years, and was 199 (1%) less than in 1997. However, it is only 1% below the 1981-85 average level.
The total number of casualties in 1998 was 22,457, 172 (1%) less than in 1997: the fourth lowest figure in the past 40 years. It is 17% below the 1981-85 average level. However, the numbers seem to have levelled of, with the figures for each of the six years from 1993 being within about 600 (3%) of that periods average of just over 22,300.
The reductions in the numbers of accidents and casualties compared with the 1981-85 annual averages are even more significant given that the number of vehicles licensed in Scotland in 1998 was 40% higher than the 1981-85 average, and traffic on major roads in Scotland in 1998 was estimated to have grown by around a third since 1987.
1.2 Accidents
In 1966 there were just over 23,200 injury road accidents and the annual total remained around this level until 1973. Numbers then dropped considerably in 1974 and 1975 to about 20,600. This was the time of a fuel crisis when a national speed limit of 50mph was introduced and the volume of
traffic in Great Britain fell by 3% in 1974. Accident numbers increased again in 1976 and reached a peak of nearly 23,100 in 1979.
In the early 1980s numbers began to fall, and did so particularly sharply in 1983 when the total number of injury accidents fell by 7% in a single year to 19,400, serious accidents fell by 13% to just over 6,400, and fatal accidents fell by 11% to 568. The year 1983 was when the 1981 Transport Act came into force and changed the law relating to drink driving, with the introduction of evidential breath testing. Compulsory front seat belt wearing and new procedures for licensing learner motor cyclists were also introduced in 1983. After 1983 the total number of injury accidents increased again to over 20,600 in 1985, and the number of serious accidents rose to just over 6,500 while fatal accidents continued to fall.
In 1987 the Government adopted a target to reduce road casualties by one third from the 1981-85 annual average by the year 2000 (see the Introduction). The 1981-85 annual average for the total number of injury accidents was just under 20,500, for serious accidents it was just over 6,800, and for fatal accidents it was 581.
By 1987 the total number of injury accidents had fallen to under 18,700, 9% less than the 1981-85 average, but in 1989 it was up again to just over 20,600, just above the 1981-85 average.
1989 was the most recent peak in the total number of injury accidents. (In contrast, in 1989, serious accidents, at just over 5,800, and fatal accidents, at 496, were both 15% less than the 1981-85 average.) Since 1989, the total number of injury accidents has fallen in 7 out of 9 years, and in 1996 it was at the lowest level ever recorded. The 1998 figure of 16,514 was the second lowest ever recorded, 0.8% less than in 1997, and 19% less than the 1981-85 annual average.
In recent years, the numbers of fatal accidents have fallen considerably: from the 1981-85 average level of 581 to 316 in 1996 which was the lowest ever recorded. After rising to 340 in 1997, there was a slight drop to 339 in 1998: the third lowest figure ever recorded, and 42% below the 1981-85 average.
For serious accidents, the trend has also been downwards, from just over 6,800 for the 1981-85 average. The 1998 figure of 3,314 is the second lowest ever recorded, and is 52% below the 1981-85 average.
The numbers of slight accidents have not changed so much over the years: while sometimes rising and sometimes falling, they have remained between 12,000 and 15,000 since 1970. The 1998 figure of 12,861 was only slightly lower than the 1981-85 average of almost 13,100.
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