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1. Introduction
1.1 This chapter provides information about travel (within Great Britain) by Scottish residents, which was collected by surveys such as the National Travel Survey (NTS). The statistics in this chapter come from analysis of the travel information reported by individual people in such surveys, and therefore can provide "person-based" "cross-modal" information, in contrast to most of the earlier chapters, each of which is based on a particular mode of transport.
1.2 There have been several changes to this chapter. Five new tables have been added, viz:-
Table 12.8 – ‘Frequency of Walking per week, 1998’
Table 12.12 – ‘Usual means of travel to usual place of work (in Autumn)’
Table 12.13 – ‘Average time taken to travel to usual place of work (in Autumn)’
Table 12.14 – ‘Usual means of travel to work (in Spring)’
Table 12.15 – ‘Trips made on an average weekday’
In addition, some of the tables from the previous edition have been split into, or replaced by more, smaller tables and the numbers of other tables from the previous edition have changed in consequence.
2. Main Points
2.1 The average number of journeys per person per year was 1,028 in 1995/97, equivalent to an average of 2.8 journeys per person per day. The average increased by 6% between 1985/86 and 1995/97. Since 1985/86, the number of journeys by car has risen by 56%, but there have been a falls of 28% in the numbers of journeys for which "walking" or "local bus" is the main mode. (Table 12.1)
2.2 Cars, vans and lorries accounted for over three-quarters (77%) of the average of around 6,700 miles which was travelled per year per person over the period 1995 to 1997. Almost half the distance (48%: over 3,200 miles) was covered as the driver, and a further 29% (about 2,000 miles) as a passenger. No other mode of transport accounted for more than 10%: "local bus" had the next highest share, with 6% of the total distance travelled (roughly 400 miles). Surface rail accounted for just 4% (about 260 miles), walking for only 3% (around 180 miles) and cycling for only 0.4% (about 24 miles). (Table 12.2)
2.3 The average distance travelled per person per year has increased by more than two fifths (44%) between 1985/86 (under 4,700 miles) and 1995/97 (over 6,700 miles). Almost all the increase was accounted for by travel in a car as a driver (up from around 1,900 miles to over 3,200 miles) or as a passenger (up from about 1,300 miles to almost 2,000 miles). As a result, these modes’ shares increased from 41% to 48% (driver) and from 28% to 29% (passenger). (Table 12.2)
2.4 Over the ten years, the average length of a car journey has remained around 8-9 miles, compared to around 4-5 miles for local bus journeys and around 30 miles for train journeys. (Table 12.3)
2.5 On average, over 1,000 journeys were made per person per year. In 1995/97, shopping (22%) was the most frequent purpose of a journey, and three other purposes had large shares of the total: "commuting", "visiting friends at home" and "other personal business" each accounted for 13-18% of journeys. (Table 12.4)
2.6 In 1995/97, of the journey purposes, "commuting" had the largest share of the total distance travelled (19%: nearly 1,300 miles), followed by "visiting friends at home" (17%: about 1,150 miles). "Shopping", "holiday/day trip" and "other personal business" each accounted for around 12-14% of the distance travelled (in each case, between 800 and 950 miles), and "business" travel accounted for 10% (over 650 miles). (Table 12.5)
2.7 Between 1985 and 1995/97, there were increases in the average length of journeys for most purposes. For example, the average length of commuting journeys rose from 5.4 miles to 7.8 miles, and the average length of shopping journeys increased from 2.9 miles to 4.1 miles. (Table 12.6)
2.8 In 1998, 68% of adults said that they (sometimes) walked to travel to or from the shops, 45% said that they (sometimes) walked for leisure or enjoyment, and 37% said that they (sometimes) walked to visit friends. However, 10% of adults said that they never walked, and this percentage increased steadily with age: only 1% of those aged 16-24 said that they never walked compared with 18% of those aged 65+. (Table 12.7)
2.9 For the adult population as a whole, the average number of walks per person per week was 9.4. There was considerable variation about this average: 10% of adults said that they do not walk, and a further 12% said that they walk only once or twice per week; whereas 10% walked 22 or more times per week, and 11 % walked 15-21 times per week. The average number of walks over half a mile per person per week was 5.4: 28% of adults said that they never walked more than half a mile, and 8% said that they walked over half a mile 15 or more times per week. (Table 12.8)
2.10 "Leisure" was the main reason reported for using a bicycle, being given for over half (55%) of cyclists aged 19 or over, and for almost three-quarters (72%) of cyclists of all ages. For almost a quarter (23%) of cyclists aged 19 or over, the main reason for using a bicycle was "for exercise" or "to keep fit/healthy". Only 8% of cyclists aged 19 or over use a bicycle every day, and only a further 8% did so 4-6 days per week - whereas almost three fifths did so less than once a week (22% 1-3 times per month, and 37% less often than once a month). Cyclists aged up to 18 used their bicycles more often, with 30% doing so every day. (Tables 12.9 and 12.10)
2.11 Walking was the main means of travel to school for almost two-thirds (63%) of school children. About a fifth (21%) travelled by bus, and one in seven (15%) went by car. Only 1% cycled to school. (Table 12.11)
2.12 Between 1992 and 1998 there has been an increase in the percentage of the working population using cars as the usual means of travel to work (from 64% in 1992 to 70% in 1998) and decreases in the percentages using buses (from 15% to 11%) and walking (from 16% to 13%). (Table 12.12)
2.13 There appears to have been little change in recent years in the average time taken to travel to work by the main modes of transport: about 22 minutes by car; a little over 30 minutes by bus and about 11-12 minutes by foot. The occasional fluctuations in the average time taken for ‘rail’ and ‘other’ may be due to sampling variability. (Table 12.13)
2.14 The longer-term trends are shown by statistics from the population censuses, which have collected information about travel to work since 1966. The percentage of the working population using cars to travel to work has increased from 21% in 1966 to 59% in 1991 and the percentage using buses has fallen from 43% in 1966 to 18% in 1991. There has also been a significant fall in the proportion of the working population who walk to work, from 24% in 1966 to 15% in 1991. (Table 12.14)
2.15 It is estimated that, on an average weekday in 1997, over 4 million person-trips were made by car, bus or train within the area covered by the Central Scotland Transport Model (CSTM3), which is, broadly, from Perth and Dundee to the border. (The basis of these estimates is explained in the "Notes and Definitions" and "Sources" sections.) Over half of these trips were within Glasgow and Strathclyde (excluding Ayrshire), and a fifth were within Edinburgh and the Lothians. Only 12% of trips were between different CSTM3 "sectors", with the largest such flows being roughly 45,000 person trips in each direction between Glasgow/Strathclyde and Central; around 35-40,000 person-trips each way between Edinburgh/Lothians and Glasgow/Strathclyde; and about 35,000 person trips each way between Fife and Edinburgh/Lothians. Of the 4.2 million person trips per day it is estimated that 3.4 million (82%) were by car. (Table 12.15)
2.16 It is estimated that there were nearly 0.8 million person-trips by bus or train per weekday which started or finished in, or passed through, the CSTM3 area. Almost three-fifths of these were within Glasgow/Strathclyde, and nearly a third within Edinburgh/Lothians. There were no cases of a flow between different CSTM3 sectors which involved as many as 10,000 passengers each way per weekday, and the numbers travelling between the CSTM3 area and elsewhere are also estimated to fewer than 10,000 each way per weekday. (Table 12.15)
2.17 There was an average of almost 3 million trips per weekday by cars and goods vehicles. Almost half were within Glasgow/Strathclyde, and a sixth were within Edinburgh/Lothians: in total, 83% were within one CSTM3 sector. The largest flows between areas were 30-35,000 vehicles each way per weekday between Glasgow/Strathclyde and Central, and about 30,000 vehicles each way per weekday between Edinburgh/Lothians and Glasgow/Strathclyde. Dundee was the sector which had the most traffic with places outwith the CSTM3 area, averaging 26,000 vehicles each way per weekday. (Table 12.15)
3. Notes and Definitions
3.1 Travel by Scottish residents: the notes that follow relate to the statistics (in tables 12.1 to 12.6) which were obtained from the National Travel Survey (NTS). The averages given in the tables are averages per head of population, and they will vary greatly from person to person: for example, there will be many people who do not travel on business at all, and others who travel thousands of miles on business.
3.2 A journey is defined as a one-way course of travel having a single main purpose. Outward and return halves of a return journey are treated as two separate journeys. If a single course of travel involves a mid-way change of purpose then it is split into two journeys (but trivial subsidiary purposes, such as a stop en route to buy a newspaper, are disregarded).
3.3 Main mode of transport: the mode that was used for the longest stage of the journey, where a journey involves more than one mode of transport (eg a bus and then a train). In the text, references to car journeys include a few by van and lorry.
3.4 Length of a journey: the distance actually covered by the traveller, as reported by the traveller and not the distance "as the crow flies".
3.5 Other personal business: includes - eg - journeys to the bank, doctor, hairdresser, library and church.
3.6 Sampling variability: some of the apparent changes in some modes’ figures in Table 12.2 may be due to sampling variability: for example, the apparent fluctuations in the "surface rail" figures (285 miles in 1985/86, 468 miles in 1989/91, 154 miles in 1992/94 and 256 miles in 1995/97) are inconsistent with the changes in the overall figures for rail passenger numbers for the same period. It is likely that the fluctuations in the NTS results reflect the inclusion (by random chance) in the sample of more rail users, or greater rail users, in some years than in other years.
3.7 Trips made on an average weekday: the remaining notes relate to the statistics in Table 12.15. These are the estimated annual average numbers of trips made per weekday between the areas shown, using the specified modes of transport (for example, they do not include trips made by foot, by bicycle, or by motorcycle). The figures represent the total flows over the whole 24 hours of an average weekday. A return journey, from A to B and back again, on the same day, would be counted as two trips: one from A to B and one from B to A.
3.8 'Person trips' relate to the number of people travelling by the specified modes of transport, and 'vehicle trips' to the numbers of vehicles going between the specified areas. Thus, for example, if a car containing two people goes from A to B, it is counted as two person trips and one vehicle trip.
3.9 The areas identified in the table are "sectors" within the Central Scotland Transport Model (CSTM). These correspond broadly (but not necessarily exactly) to the areas of the similarly-named former Regions and/or current Councils.
3.10 "Elsewhere" defines those areas outwith the CSTM3 model area, including England, and all other parts of Scotland. CSTM3 does not hold information regarding the movement of people for trips wholly outwith the model area.
3.11 In some cases, the estimated average number of trips originating in an area differs markedly from the estimated number with a destination in that area - for example, compare the estimates of 954,000 person trips with a destination in Edinburgh & Lothians and 930,000 trips originating in Edinburgh & Lothians. This is because the estimation process (which is described in section 4) is based upon survey data covering the 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. period, and cannot take full account of trips which involve returning later in the evening. Therefore, the CSTM3-based estimates indicate broadly the levels of flows within Scotland, but do not provide precise measures.
4. Sources
4.1 Travel (within GB) by Scottish residents (Tables 12.1 to 12.6)
4.1.1 Information about travel (within Great Britain) by Scottish residents is obtained from the National Travel Survey (NTS). This collects "travel diary" details from a sample of households across Great Britain. Travel for all private purposes is included. Journeys in the course of work are included if they fulfil the requirement that the main reason for the journey is for the traveller to reach the destination. However, travel in the course of work to convey passengers or to deliver goods is excluded, such as travel in the course of their work by bus drivers, lorry drivers and postmen. Journeys off the public highway, such as country walks, are excluded.
4.1.2 The NTS is not designed to provide reliable estimates for Scotland for single years: the sample includes only a few hundred Scottish households each year. Therefore, the samples for a number of years must be combined in order to produce Scottish results, and even they will be subject to sampling variability.
4.2 Percentages of adults who walk for various purposes (Tables 12.7 and 12.8)
4.2.1 The information is taken from the results of research to investigate both current patterns of walking and also attitudes to walking among the population of Scotland. As part of System Three’s "omnibus" Scottish Opinion Survey, a sample of 1,063 adults was interviewed in homes throughout Scotland in February and a further 1,081 were interviewed in August 1998 (39 "sampling points" were used). The sample was then weighted to match population estimates (by age, sex and Socio-Economic Group) from the National Readership Survey of July 1995 to June 1996.
4.3 Cyclists: reasons for using a bicycle, and frequency of cycling (Tables 12.9 and 12.10)
4.3.1 The information is taken from the results of research to investigate the levels of participation in, and demand for, cycling in Scotland, the characteristics and behaviour of cyclists and the perceptions and attitudes of people towards cycling. The information was collected by including questions in three "waves" of System Three’s "omnibus" Scottish Opinion Survey: February, April and August 1997. Interviews were conducted in homes throughout Scotland (40 "sampling points" were used), in a total of 3,219 households. The questionnaire was designed to collect information about all members of the household who cycled, including children. Information was obtained about a total of 3,373 cyclists, with the respondent answering on behalf of the members of the household who were cyclists.
4.4 Travelling to school (Table 12.11)
4.4.1 This information was collected in February and August 1998 using System Three’s "omnibus" Scottish Opinion Survey (see above). The adults who were interviewed were asked whether there were any children in their household currently attending day school, and, if there were, about matters such as each child’s age, the distance to his/her school, and how he/she normally travelled to school (for the main part of the journey). Responses were provided in respect of 1,045 children.
4.5 Travel to work (Tables 12.12 to 12.14)
4.5.1 Information about travel to work is obtained from the Labour Force Survey using questions which have been included in those survey interviews which have been conducted in the Autumn each year since 1992. The tables include the self-employed, those on Government training schemes and unpaid family workers as well as employees, but exclude those working at home, and those whose workplace or mode of transport to work was not known. The LFS is a household survey covering 60,000 households each quarter in GB, and about 6,000 households per quarter in Scotland.
4.5.2 Information about travel to work is also collected by the Census of Population. There have been some changes in the categories used – for example, the 1966 Census had a category described as "none" which was included in the 1971 Census under its "On foot and none" category; the 1971 Census had a category described as "Public Transport" which was separate from the categories for "Train" and "Bus"; and the 1981 and 1991 Census "travel to work" figures exclude those who were working at home. However, the effect of such differences on the statistics will be small compared to the scale of the changes in the shares of the main modes of travel.
4.6 Trips made on an average weekday (Table 12.15)
4.6.1 These figures were provided using the Central Scotland Transport Model (CSTM3). This covers the area from Perth and Dundee to the border, in which lives roughly 80% of the population of Scotland.
4.6.2 The area covered by the model is divided into 1181 zones. The model uses planning data for each zone (eg population, number of households, car ownership, employment, number of employed residents) to calculate the number of trips that would be expected to be generated. The pattern of travel movements is held in a series of trip matrices covering the morning peak period, the evening peak period and the intervening off-peak period. Taken together, these matrices can be combined to provide a matrix reflecting trip movements during the period 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on a typical weekday. Daily, monthly and annual averages can then be derived by grossing-up these figures. The resulting expected flows around the transport network are then "calibrated" and "validated" using information about the actual numbers of trips that were made on particular routes. This information was collected using traffic counts, roadside interviews and surveys of passengers on public transport. Some of the information was collected specifically for the CSTM3, and some was obtained from other ‘donor’ models (such as the Strathclyde Integrated Transport Model). While some of the data were collected in other years, the programme of surveys to collect data for the CSTM started in 1997, and 1997 is the base year for the model.
4.6.3 Applying the calibration and validation process to the "expected numbers of generated trips" calculated by the model produces estimates of the numbers of trips which are consistent with the observed traffic counts and the results of surveys and interviews. The estimated numbers of trips for the areas shown in the table were then produced by aggregating the estimated numbers of trips for the relevant zones.
4.6.4 The quality and coverage of the data that are held within the CSTM3 vary between different areas and different parts of the transport network. This is the result of the historical interest in the movement of people and goods between various points on the transport network, and the resultant availability of data. A programme of work has been planned to improve the quality of the CSTM3's data for those areas where it is, at present, weak.
5. Further Information
5.1 The Scottish Executive statistical bulletin " Travel by Scottish residents: some National Travel Survey results" provides a range of National Travel Survey statistics for Scotland, and some information about the survey. More details of this publication are given under "Scottish Executive Transport Statistics publications". The National Travel Survey is also described in the DETR publication "Focus on Personal Travel", which is published by the Stationery Office, and in the "National Travel Survey Technical Report", which is produced by the Office for National Statistics.
5.2 Enquiries regarding National Travel Survey statistics, and transport statistics from the Labour Force Survey, should be directed to Spencer Broadley of the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (tel: 0171 890 3097)
5.3 Enquiries regarding the ‘Walking’ research report/findings, and the ‘Cycling’ research report/findings should be directed to Janet Ruiz of the Scottish Executive Central Research Unit (tel: 0131 244 0377).
5.4 Further information or guidance on the detailed application of CSTM3 can be obtained from Bill Smith, the Scottish Executive Transport Division 1 (tel: 0131 244 7260) or Kevin Lumsdale, MVA (tel: 0131 557 5533).
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