Futures - futures studies are always in the plural because there is not one fixed futures which can be predicted. Instead, there are different possible alternative futures that we can explore.
Futurist - those who use a wide range of methodologies to engage in structure and thoughtful speculation about future possibilities.
Horizon scanning or Scanning - searching and monitoring a range of information sources to identify trends and emerging developments. This can be done on an ad hoc or regular basis, although best results are likely to be obtained from regular scanning.
Key drivers - these are the key forces which are driving and shaping change in relation to the policy area or aspects of the future you are considering. The extent to which we are able to influence those key drivers will vary significantly, e.g. we will not be able to influence the rise of new global players like China or India, but we can make efforts to influence traffic levels in Scotland. While we may not be able to influence some key drivers, what will remain important is how we prepare and/or respond to them.
Scenarios - alternative descriptions or stories of how the future might unfold. They compile information about divergent trends and possibilities into internally consistent images of plausible alternative futures. They are designed to systematically explore future challenges and opportunities and to aid in strategy development. You end up with a set of several different scenarios or pictures, and typically you would come up with 4 different images of the future. They can aid in the evaluation of strategies by posing several alternative sets of conditions that strategies can be tested against. Each strategy can be evaluated to assess whether it is robust enough to work in most or all of the scenarios.
Trends analysis - an exploration of trends that are already developing or underway. The earlier a trend is detected, the greater is our flexibility and capacity to respond to it. Trends analysis can set the stage for thinking about the future possibilities that result or may result from the development of these trends. Typically, you might use a model to help structure trends analysis, to ensure you were covering all key points (see our trends analysis papers which used the GLIMPSES model).
Vision or visioning - creating models of the desired future we would like to create. In terms of what are the differences between scenarios and visions, Clem Bezold said that "scenarios are futures for the head; visions are futures for the heart". Scenarios answer the question "What if?", while visions answer the question, "What do we most want?". Visioning requires careful articulation of our long-term ideals and goals, and the values that contribute to them. It can be an excellent start to team building and community building. There are various methods and techniques to help with visioning. But moving from this stage to complete workable plans is a separate, but related process that happens afterwards.
Wildcards - this is a term for high impact, low probability events that are worth considering. Although they may appear improbable, history shows they will occasionally happen, sometimes with far-reaching effects.