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3. Whose views have changed?
3.1 Section 2 of this report showed that attitudes to government in Scotland have changed significantly between 2006 and 2007 across a number of key measures. Trust in government to act in Scotland's best interests and make fair decisions increased (for both the Scottish Executive and UK government) and perceptions of the impact of having a Scottish Parliament on ordinary people's say in how Scotland is run and on Scotland's voice in the UK both changed dramatically. This section explores whose views have changed, focusing particularly on these 3 areas (trust, ordinary people's say, and the impact of devolution on Scotland's voice in the UK) where there have been the biggest changes in attitudes from 2006 to 2007.
Factors associated with positive perceptions of government
3.2 Before exploring differences between 2006 and 2007, it is worth briefly summarising factors that generally tend to be related to positive perceptions of government (high levels of trust, belief in system efficacy, etc.). The 2006 core module report on perceptions of government (Ormston and Sharp, 2007b) showed that attitudes varied with:
- Education - with those who are educated to a higher level tending to be more trusting and more likely to believe devolution is having a positive impact.
- Party political identification - those who identify with the party of government tend to have higher levels of trust in that government, while in Scotland those who identify with the party or parties running the Scottish Executive also tend to be more positive about the impact of devolution.
- Newspaper readership - broadsheet readers tend to be more trusting than tabloid readers (at least with respect to whether the Scottish Executive acts in Scotland's best interests), and are more likely to believe the Scottish Parliament is giving ordinary people more say.
- Interest in politics - generally speaking, those who are interested in politics tend to be more positive about government (although in some cases the 2006 data suggested that it was those with 'some' interest rather than those with a 'great deal' or 'quite a lot' of interest who were most positive).
- Social trust - people who are more trusting of each other (thinking 'most people can be trusted' rather than 'you can't be too careful in dealing with people') also tend to display somewhat higher levels of political trust.
- Constitutional preference - whether people would prefer Scotland to have an independent or devolved parliament or to be governed solely from Westminster has been shown to be closely linked with views on the impact of devolution in practice. For example, those who favour Westminster rule were significantly less likely than supporters of devolution or independence to say the Scottish Parliament was giving ordinary people more say in 2006.
3.3 As noted in the 2006 report, a key challenge in interpreting these associations is establishing which direction causality runs in. For example, it could be the case either that a lack of interest in politics predisposes people to feel less positive about government, or that the development of negative views about government leads people to lose interest. In practice, it is possible that both these scenarios are true for different individuals, while for others the two could be mutually reinforcing.
Changes from 2006 to 2007
3.4 The remainder of this chapter explores whether the increase in positive perceptions of government between 2006 and 2007 occurred among all groups of people in Scotland, or whether the views of some groups have shifted more than those of others. 11 Illustrative findings are discussed in the text, with detailed tables showing views of government by year and key demographic factors and political attitudes included in Annex A (Tables A.23 to A.26).
Sex and age
3.5 Perceptions of government changed between 2006 and 2007 among both men and women. For example, the proportion of men who trusted the Scottish Executive to act in Scotland's best interests 'just about always' or 'most of the time' increased from 53% in 2006 to 73% in 2007, while the proportion of women who thought the same increased from 50% to 69% (Table A.23)
3.6 Positive views also increased across all age groups. For example, trust to make fair decisions increased from 36% to 51% among 18-24s and from 28% to 49% among those aged 65 and above (Table A.24). 12
Deprivation and urbanity/rurality
3.7 An increase in positive attitudes towards government was also apparent among people living in both deprived and affluent and in urban and rural areas of Scotland. For example, among those living in the least deprived areas of Scotland (as measured by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation 13), the proportion who said that having a Scottish Parliament was giving ordinary people more say in how Scotland is run increased from 41% in 2006 to 50% in 2007. Among those living in the most deprived areas, it increased from 32% to 42% (Table A.25). So although those in deprived areas are still less likely than those in affluent areas to think that devolution is having a positive impact on the ability of ordinary people to influence government, their views have shifted by a similar degree.
3.8 Similarly, more people in both urban and rural areas express higher levels of trust in the Scottish Executive and believe the Scottish Parliament is having a positive impact on both ordinary people's say and on Scotland's voice in 2007 compared with 2006. For example, the proportion of people in large urban areas saying having a Scottish Parliament strengthened Scotland's voice in the UK increased from 43% to 61%. Among those living in remote rural areas, it increased from 47% to 63%. 14
Education
3.9 As discussed above, the 2006 core module demonstrated that those educated to a higher level were more positive than those with low or no qualifications about government in general and about the impact of devolution in particular. The finding that those with higher levels of education are more trusting (in general and of government) is a common one, borne out by various other surveys (e.g. Bromely, Curtice and Seyd, 2004, Warren (ed), 1999). However, in 2007 the difference between those with higher and lower levels of education has all but disappeared on one measure of trust (fair decisions) and has substantially reduced on the other. This is because the increase in trust among those with no qualifications appears to have been much higher than among those qualified to higher education level. On the fair decisions measure, a 23 point increase in trust from 23% to 46% is apparent among those with no qualifications, compared with a 6 point increase (41% to 47%) among those with degrees (Figure 7).
Figure 7 Trust the Scottish Executive to make fair decisions 'a great deal'/'quite a lot' by highest educational qualification, 2006 and 2007
Sample size:
2006: None = 394, Degree/ HE = 479
2007: None = 367, Degree/ HE = 487
3.10 With respect to trust in the Scottish Executive to act in Scotland's best interests, while the gap in trust between graduates and those without qualifications has not disappeared altogether it has narrowed, from 27 points in 2006 to 14 in 2007 (Table A.23). Thus trust in the Scottish Executive appears to have increased more between 2006 and 2007 among a group who were less trusting - those with no qualifications. It is possible that these findings on the narrowing of the gap in trust between those with high and low qualifications in part reflect a 'ceiling' effect - that is, that those who are more educated were already expressing fairly high levels of trust and may be unlikely to move much further on this measure.
3.11 Similar findings on education were not apparent for questions on the impact of the parliament on Scotland's voice in the UK and on ordinary people's say in government - the change in attitudes between 2006 and 2007 was similar across people with low and high levels of education.
Party political identification
3.12 As discussed above, a common finding in surveys on attitudes to government is that people who identify with the party of government are more likely to express positive views about government in general. This relationship is clearly demonstrated by the change in attitudes of SNP identifiers between 2006 and 2007 in terms of both trust and attitudes to the impact of devolution. For example, the proportion of SNP supporters who thought having a Scottish Parliament was giving Scotland a stronger voice in the UK increased from 43% in 2006 to 77% in 2007 (Figure 8), making SNP identifiers the group most likely to say this for the first time since 2003 15. However, what is perhaps equally striking about the findings on party identification and attitudes to government is that positive perceptions have also increased among supporters of other parties and none. A similar pattern to that shown in Figure 8 is apparent for all the other questions discussed in this section (see Annex A, Tables A.23 to A.26). Thus perceptions of government and devolution changed across the party political spectrum between 2006 and 2007, not solely among those who identified with the new party of government.
Figure 8 Having a Scottish Parliament strengthens Scotland's voice in the UK by party identification, 2006 and 2007
Sample size:
2006: SNP = 271, Lib Dem = 142, Labour = 532, Conservative = 207, None = 215, Other party/don't know/refused = 227
2007: SNP = 346, Lib Dem = 128, Labour = 503, Conservative = 189, None = 186, Other party/don't know/refused= 156
Newspaper readership
3.13 Perceptions of government changed between 2006 and 2007 among broadsheet readers, tabloid readers and those who do not read a daily paper at all. However, further analysis suggests that increases in trust to act in Scotland's best interests and changes in perceptions of the impact of the Scottish Parliament on Scotland's voice in the UK may have been more pronounced among newspaper readers (and, with respect to trust, tabloid readers in particular) compared with non-readers (see Tables A.23 and A.26). For example, in 2006 just 43% of tabloid readers said they trusted the Scottish Executive 'just about always' or 'most of the time' to act in Scotland's best interests. This figure rose 25 points to 68% by 2007. In comparison, the 13 point increase in trust among non-readers (from 56% to 69%) was more modest. However, it remained the case in 2007 that broadsheet readers were more trusting than tabloid readers (77% compared with 68% on the 'best interests' measure).
Constitutional preference
3.14 As discussed above, perceptions of government in Scotland have, unsurprisingly, tended to be less positive among those who would prefer Scotland to be ruled wholly from Westminster. This remained the case in 2007. However, interestingly trust in the Scottish Executive to act in Scotland's best interests in particular increased as much among people who support Westminster rule as among those who support independence - by 25 points in each case (Figure 9). The reasons for this are unclear - one speculative hypothesis would be that the advent of a nationalist government means that those who support Westminster rule are more inclined to see the Scottish Executive as acting solely in Scotland's interests, which may not be something they view positively.
Figure 9 Trust the Scottish Executive to act in Scotland's best interests 'just about always'/'most of the time' by constitutional preference, 2006 and 2007
Sample size:
2006: Westminster rule = 154, Devolution = 852, Independence = 478
2007: Westminster rule = 142, Devolution = 953, Independence = 330
3.15 In respect of general assessments of the impact of devolution on Scotland, it is those who support independence whose views have shifted most between 2006 and 2007. For example, 61% of those who support independence said having a Scottish Parliament was giving ordinary people more say in how Scotland is run - up 25 points from 36% in 2006. In comparison, the views of those who support devolution or Westminster rule shifted very little on this issue (by 6 and 5 points respectively) in this period). This finding is less surprising, given the strong association between support for independence and support for the SNP party of government (57% of SNP identifiers would prefer independence, compared with 24% of all respondents). Those who support independence are now seeing their political views advocated by the Scottish Government, and are therefore more likely to feel that devolution is having a positive impact in terms of their say in government.
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