The Scottish Government

Title

Value of Scotland's total exports, including trade with the rest of the UK.

National Indicator/Target

To grow exports at a faster average rate than Scottish GDP in current prices over the term of this Parliament.

Brief Description

The indicator is an estimate of the value of goods and services that Scotland exports to other countries, including to the rest of the UK.

Strategic Objective(s) to Which Indicator Relates

This indicator will inform progress in relation to the Wealthier & Fairer Strategic Objective.

Exports is an important indicator of long-term trends in economic performance and international competitiveness and should form part of any economic narrative.

More Detailed Definitions

Definitions of Keywords

Exports are defined as the sale of goods or services by businesses located in Scotland to customers residing outwith Scotland.

In accordance with National Accounting principles, the oil and gas sector are excluded from the analysis as this is not attributed to any one area of the UK - termed "extra-regio" activity.

Evidence Source

Scotland does not have a customs border or a mandatory trade survey and is therefore not able to track trade with the precision that other countries can. The Scottish Government's Global Connections Survey ( GCS) estimates, which extend back to 2002, are based on a voluntary sample of Scottish business and are therefore subject to sampling variability. This is particularly acute for estimates of trade with the 'rest of the UK' (accounting for 70% total exports) as larger companies are often unable to breakdown their intra- UK trade.

The GCS is the only export survey covering all sectors of the Scottish economy.

GCS responses are supplemented with UK surveys and other data sources to account for non response before being weighted to reflect the entire population of Scottish business. Estimates are provided in current prices and in £ millions.

The source for the GDP estimates will be the Office for National Statistics ( ONS) regional GVA estimates (Regional Accounts). These are current price estimates in basic prices and do not include "extra regio" activity.

Baseline and Past Trends

Baseline of Target: Calendar Year of 2007

Source: Global Connections Survey 2005, Office for National Statistics - Regional Accounts 2005 (current prices)
Notes:
1. GDP is equivalent to GVA at basic prices
2. 2006 data will be available, with possible revisions to 2002 - 2005 data, on 14 December 2007 for GDP and 18 December 2007 for exports.

Export estimates currently exist for the period 2002 - 2005 and have grown on average by 4.5%. This is lower than the average GDP growth of 5.3% over the same period. The chart above shows that exports grew at a faster rate than GDP prior to 2004.

However export growth is largely explained by the growth in export sales to the rest of the UK. This series is classified as "in development" due to the level of data available at this breakdown. International exports (outwith the UK) experienced an average growth rate of -1.9% over the period - only experiencing growth in 2005.

Methodology

GCS survey responses are supplemented by other sources before being weighted to reflect the Scottish population.

This is done using the Inter Departmental Business Register - which is a list of UK businesses maintained by the Office for National Statistics ( ONS) and combines the former Central Statistical Office ( CSO) VAT based business register and the former Employment Department ( ED) employment statistics system. It complies with European Union regulation 2186/93 on harmonisation of business registers for statistical purposes.

Data Ownership and Quality Assurance

The Global Connections Survey ( GCS) is a relatively new series (currently 4 years) and is not currently classified as National Statistics. However it is produced in accordance with National Statistics principles, with the survey quality continually improving over time.

In time, it is likely that National Statistics status for international exports (outwith UK) will be sought as these are of national importance.

Estimates of exports to the rest of the UK are currently classed as "in development", and feedback is currently been sought on the methodology and resulting analysis with a view to developing this series further.

GCS is conducted by the Scottish Government in association with Scottish Enterprise and the Local Enterprise Companies ( LECs), therefore all 3 organisations jointly own the survey responses. However the final estimates are supplemented with other data sources to account for non-response and therefore only the Scottish Government own the final estimates.

Publication of Data

GCS estimates are published on the Scottish Government website annually in December and reference the previous year figures. The expected publication schedule is:

December 2007: GCS 2006
December 2008: GCS 2007
December 2009: GCS 2008
December 2010: GCS 2009

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/Exports/GCSIntroduction

The GCS revisions policy incorporates new information into the export analysis which often reflect improvements made possible by the availability of additional years' survey responses. Therefore previously published estimates are subject to revision.

GCS export estimates are also included in the annual compendium publication: Scottish Economic Statistics which is likely to be published in the summer.

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/PubSES