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Indicator 19. Preparing for Life
The Annual Scottish Labour Force Survey was enhanced in 2003 which means that data is more reliable. Using this data it is estimated that 13.7% of those aged 16-19 in Scotland are not in education, training or employment ( NEET). Taking into account sampling error the true value is likely to lie between 12.3% and 15.0%.
Previously NEET figures were calculated using a combination of the 4 quarterly Labour Force Survey datasets for each year. As the enhanced dataset is not comparable with data from previous years, the data in the chart and table below for 2003 uses the NEET figure calculated using the previous method without the enhancement. As future enhanced data becomes available a new time trend will be produced using this data.
Percentage of 16-19 year olds who are not in education, training or employment
Percentage of 16-19 year olds who are not in education, training or employment
Year Ending | Male | Female | All |
|---|
Feb 1999 | 14.2 | 13.9 | 14.1 |
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Feb 2000 | 16.0 | 13.7 | 14.9 |
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Feb 2001 | 14.2 | 15.7 | 15.0 |
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Feb 2002 | 16.6 | 14.2 | 15.4 |
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Feb 2003 | 15.0 | 13.0 | 14.0 |
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Feb 2004 | 14.6 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
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Source: Labour Force Survey, Quarters combined
The relevance of the indicator
Education and training are central to enabling every child to reach their full potential. We want to see a Scotland in which every young person has the opportunities, skills and support to make a successful transition to working life and active citizenship.
Detailed definition and source details
The indicator is defined as the proportion of 16-19 year olds who are not classed as a student; not in employment; or not participating in a government training programme. Annual data, that is the 4 quarterly datasets combined, is used for trends at the moment. However, as future enhanced data becomes available a new time trend will be produced using this data.
Trends
Data for the year ending February 2004 estimates that 14.5% of 16 - 19 year olds are not in education, training or employment. This is a similar level that was estimated for 1999. Since the Baseline year of 1999, there has been little change in the level of young people not in education, employment or training.
The proportion of NEET estimated using the non-enhanced Labour Force Survey has a high level of error associated with the estimate. This means that between the year ending February 1998 and the year ending February 2004, the true level of the NEET group was no different from that in any other year. That is to say, there is no evidence of any significant change in the levels of young people in the NEET group. This is also true for males and females.
Further disaggregation
The enhancement to the LFS in 2003 enables us to produce estimates by age and urban/rural split.
Percentage of 16-19 year olds who are not in education, training or employment, 2003
Age | Male | Female | All |
|---|
16 | 11.6 | * | 8.9 |
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17 | 16.0 | 12.2 | 14.1 |
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18 | 21.4 | 15.8 | 18.7 |
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19 | 10.7 | 15.2 | 12.9 |
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Source: Annual Scottish Labour Force 2003
* figure is unreliable.
Area | Male | Female | All |
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Urban councils | 17.0 | 12.6 | 14.8 |
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Rural councils | 10.1 | 11.5 | 10.8 |
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Scotland | 15.0 | 13.7 | 13.7 |
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Source: Annual Scottish Labour Force 2003
Target
The target is to reduce the proportion of 16-19 year olds who are not in education, training or employment by 2006 1. In 1999 just over 33,000 people in Scotland aged 16-19 were not in work, education or training.
Closing the Opportunity Gap Target B aims to reduce the proportion of 16-19 year olds who are not in education training or employment by 2008 2.
In addition Target G aims to by 2007 ensure that at least 50% of all "looked after" young people leaving care have entered education, employment or training.
Action
We are taking action on a number of fronts to influence the indicator:
There were a total of 467,173 enrolments in further education colleges in 2003-04, a decrease of 5% over the previous year and an 11% increase on 1998-99. The number of enrolments by students from areas of high deprivation represented 27% of all enrolments.
Long-term youth unemployment (18-24 year olds claiming for over 6 months) has fallen by three quarters since 1997. 66,910 young people have got jobs through New Deal for young people (18-24 years) since the scheme began - 78% of which were sustained;
4 strategic targets have been agreed for Careers Scotland 3, within the context of Smart, Successful Scotland and the National Priorities for Education. Of particular significance is the target to reduce by 6,000 (by the end of academic year 2004/5) the number of young people (16-19 years) for whom being NEET (not in education, employment or training) is a negative experience;
The multi-agency Beattie Inclusiveness Projects, now managed by Careers Scotland, have a major role here. From April 2003 - March 2004, key workers supported a total of 7,091 young people progress to employment, training or education. In the same period 6,054 young people were still in employment, training or education after 3 months.
Footnotes1 This target has been refined since the publication of Meeting the Needs… in light of the Spending Review 2002. The Scottish Executive has set high level targets designed to measure the impact of policy over the spending review period i.e. to 2005/06. The Executive's approach is to set more specific targets for its delivery agents.
2 More information on the Closing the Opportunity Gap Targets can be found at www.scotland.gov.uk/closingtheopportunitygap.
3 More information on Careers Scotland can be found at: www.careers-scotland.org.uk.
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