The Scottish Government

Introduction

The Scottish Executive has set a target that nobody should need to sleep rough in Scotland by 2003. Progress in meeting the target is being measured by George Street Research at the Scottish Executives request.

Method

The approach used involves collecting information from projects involved with those sleeping rough. The measures are taken twice a year (in May and October) and the approach involves:

· Projects providing details of the numbers sleeping rough over a typical snapshot week (collected on a log sheet) and

· An audit of direct access accommodation that is available to those sleeping rough on two nights during the snapshot week (recorded on an accommodation sheet).

Definitions used in the study are provided as a glossary at the end of this short report.

The initial response rates in May 2001 were high and have increased in each subsequent wave of research. The response rate for the log sheets rose from 81% in May 2001 to 98% in October 2003, while the response rate for the accommodation sheets demonstrated an even sharper rise from 62% in May 2001 to 95% in October 2003 [1] (Table 1). The response rates across the study indicate comprehensive coverage of the projects within the study.

Key findings: May and October 2001, 2002 and 2003

The total number of individuals identified as sleeping rough over the previous 7 days showed a marked decline over the first 3 waves of data collection, falling from 500 in May 2001, to 471 in October 2001 and then to 406 in May 2002. The October 2002 and May 2003 figure show no real movement thereafter with 404 individuals reported in October 2002 and 400 in May 2003. However, the figure for October 2003 depicts a decrease to 328 (Chart 1).

The weekly average figure of individuals sleeping rough has varied over the counts and was broadly the same in October 2003 as it was in May 2001. In May 2001 the average number of people sleeping rough each night was 64. In October 2001, this average had increased to 87 and in May 2002 the average number recorded as sleeping rough the previous night was 94 per night. The October 2002 result indicated a lower average figure again, at 68 people per night on average, but this has increased again to 75 individuals per night for May 2003 before falling to 62 in October 2003. (Table 2). The variability of this figure results from a mix of factors including the level of total contacts and the frequency of contact with individuals.

As Table 2 indicates, there are particularly low levels of rough sleeping reported over the weekend nights. The numbers reported as sleeping rough on the Friday and the Saturday (from projects seeing rough sleepers on the Saturday and Sunday) are much lower than other nights in the 7 day period.

In terms of the profile of those sleeping rough, each of the count waves support the proposition that most of those sleeping rough are men (79-85%). The number of women sleeping rough in October 2003 was 68, showing an overall decline of 10 females since May 2001. The absolute decrease amongst males is more marked (Table 3), declining from 418 in May 2001 to 258 in October 2003.

In all waves to date, the age group which makes up the largest proportion of rough sleepers is the 25-40 age group, consistently comprising just under half of all those identified as sleeping rough. Very few under 16's are ever recorded.

The relative contribution of those aged 16-24 years and those aged 41 years or more does vary. Generally the 16-24 year olds outnumber those from the older age group and represent a higher proportion of those sleeping rough. However, on three instances, the number of 16-24 year olds has fallen to be similar to the number of older individuals sleeping rough and the October 2003 data shows slightly more aged over 41 years (27) than aged 16-24 years (23), (Table 3).

Relatively low numbers emerge as repeatedly sleeping rough over each of the count periods, although the data on this is not comprehensive as it relies upon complete identifiers being known for each individual sleeping rough who appears in the counts.

No individuals have been identified as appearing in all six counts to date. Of those appearing in the most recent count (October 2003);

· 6 individuals appeared in the May 2001 count

· 8 individuals appeared in the October 2001 count

· 2 individuals appeared in the May 2002 count and

· 7 individuals appeared in the October 2002 count

· 7 individuals appeared in the May 2003 count

This gives some indication of the cyclical nature of some rough sleeping and is in line with comments from project staff about the difficulty in providing long term support for some individuals.

A comparison of the total numbers of those sleeping rough with the available bed capacityreveals locations where there would be a capacity shortfall if all those sleeping rough tried to access accommodation on the count nights in question.

Details are:

· The number of local authorities with direct access accommodation and an apparent shortage of bed capacity in May 2001was 3 (Table 4). The local authorities affected were Highland , ( Highland also appeared in the next 4 counts), Aberdeen and Renfrewshire.

· There were also 5 local authorities with direct access accommodation and where the same shortage of bed capacity was noted in October 2001(Table 5). The 5 Local Authorities were Aberdeen , Perth & Kinross, Highland , Renfrewshire and North Ayrshire.

· There were 6 local authorities with direct access accommodation and where there was insufficient bed capacity on the midweek night to house all those sleeping rough who were reported that night in May 2002(Table 6). These local authorities were again Aberdeen , Perth & Kinross, Highland , North Lanarkshire , North Ayrshire and Renfrewshire.

· There were 2 local authorities with direct access accommodation and where there was insufficient bed capacity on the midweek night to house all those sleeping rough who were reported that night in October 2002(Table 7). These local authorities were Perth & Kinross and Highland .

· There were 4 local authorities with direct access accommodation and where there was insufficient bed capacity on the midweek night to house all those sleeping rough who were reported that night in May 2003(Table 8). These local authorities were Falkirk , Renfrewshire, North Lanarkshire and Highland .

· There were 5 local authorities with direct access accommodation and where there was insufficient bed capacity on the midweek night to house all those sleeping rough who were reported that night in October 2003(Table 9). These local authorities were Falkirk , Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire , Argyll and Bute and Aberdeen . In addition, there were 2 local authorities where the number of beds available exactly equalled the numbers sleeping rough in the area on the midweek night - Dundee and North Lanarkshire .

The main issues preventing people finding accommodation were generally consistent over each wave of the research to date. The main access problems appear to relate to drink (40%) and drug problems (37%) as depicted in the October 2003 data (Table 10). However, there are widespread occurrences of other problems such as mental health and behavioural problems (28% and 25% respectively).

Accommodation availability is also an issue (as depicted above) as are hostel bans. However, as a problem, the figures suggest that these are of less prevalence at this point in time than they were originally in terms of the numbers affected; no accommodation was available for 60 individuals in October 2003 and 51 were perceived to be excluded through a hostel ban. In terms of both hostel bans and accommodation not being available, more than twice this number were recorded with such an issue in May 2001.

Annex

Table 1

Response rates

Chart 1

Total number of individuals sleeping rough in 2001- 2003

Table 2

Weekly and daily average number of 'slept rough last night'

* average calculated from the daily average figures

Table 3

Age and gender of people sleeping rough

* less than 1% but not zero.

Absolute numbers in brackets below the percentages

Table 4 Reported rough sleeping in local authority areas with direct access accommodation in May 2001

*includes Argyll and Bute (6 individuals reported), South Ayrshire (2 individuals reported) and South Lanarkshire (4 individuals reported).

Table 5 Reported rough sleeping in local authority areas with direct access accommodation in October 2001

*includes South Lanarkshire (4 individuals reported), Aberdeenshire (6 individuals reported) and Falkirk (7 individuals reported).

Table 6 Reported rough sleeping and available spaces in local authority areas with direct access accommodation in May 2002

*includes Aberdeenshire (2 individuals reported), Falkirk (7 individuals reported), South Lanarkshire (1 individual reported) and Stirling (1 individual reported).

Table 7 Reported rough sleeping in local authority areas with direct access accommodation in October 2002

*includes Dumfries and Galloway (5 individuals reported midweek and 2 at the weekend), South Ayrshire (1 individual reported midweek) South Lanarkshire and Falkirk (1 individual reported by each midweek) and Stirling (4 individuals reported midweek and at the weekend).

Table 8 Reported rough sleeping in local authority areas with direct access accommodation in May 2003

*includes Dumfries and Galloway (1 individual reported midweek), East Renfrewshire (1 individual reported at the weekend) and Moray (1 individual reported midweek).

Table 9 Reported rough sleeping in local authority areas with direct access accommodation in October 2003

*includes Dumfries and Galloway (1 individual reported midweek) and Stirling (1 individual reported on both nights).

Table 10 Issues preventing person finding accommodation (log sheet)