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Scottish Manufactured Exports Estimates For The Second Quarter Of 2003

8 October 2003

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Seasonally adjusted estimates of export sales by Scotland's manufacturing sector fell by 0.5 per cent in current prices to 3.396 billion in the second quarter of 2003, and declined, in real terms, by 2.7%, according to provisional figures released today by the Scottish Executive.

Scottish Manufactured Exports - 1995-2003 Q2

The main findings are:

• Manufactured export sales estimates decreased by 21.5 per cent in real terms (constant prices) in the year to 2003 Q2, compared with the previous 4 quarters. In current prices, there was a decrease of 18.4 per cent.
• In 2003 Q2, manufactured export sales estimates decreased by 2.7 per cent in real terms, compared with the previous quarter. In current prices, there was a decrease of 0.5 per cent.
• Over the year to 2003 Q2, the following sectors experienced constant price increases in the level of exports estimates compared with the previous 4 quarters (to 2002 Q2): Metals and Metal Products (41 per cent); Transport Equipment (15 per cent); Food and Tobacco (11 per cent); Drink (8 per cent) and Chemicals and Manmade Fibres (3 per cent).
• Over the year to 2003 Q2, a number of sectors recorded a decrease in the level of exports (in constant prices) compared with the previous 4 quarters (to 2002 Q2). These were: Electrical and Instrument Engineering (37 per cent); Paper, Printing and Publishing (30 per cent); Textiles, Footwear, Leather and Clothing (9 per cent); Mechanical Engineering (4 per cent) and Other Manufacturing (4 per cent).
• The Electrical & Instrument Engineering (E&IE) industry represents the largest share of Scottish manufactured exports, accounting for 39 per cent of exports in 2003 Q2 (1.332bn in current prices). The decline in the level of exports (60% in real terms) in this sector since the beginning of 2001 has been the major driver in the recent decrease in the level of total manufactured exports.

Tables

Table 1: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS1 CURRENT PRICES ( BILLION)
Table 2: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS1 CURRENT PRICES (£ BILLION)
Table 3: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS1 1995 PRICES (£ BILLION)
Table 4: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS1 1995 PRICES (£ BILLION)
Table 5: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS CURRENT PRICES (£ BILLION) Revisions since publication of 2003 quarter 1
Table 6: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS CURRENT PRICES (£ BILLION) Revisions since publication of 2003 quarter 1
Table 7: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS 1995 PRICES (£ BILLION) Revisions since publication of 2003 quarter 1
Table 8: SCOTTISH MANUFACTURED EXPORTS 1995 PRICES (£ BILLION) Revisions since publication of 2003 quarter 1

NOTE TO NEWS EDITORS

1. Estimates of Scottish Manufactured Exports are compiled on the standard industrial classification UKSIC(2003). Implemented on 1 ^st January 2003, UKSIC(2003) is a minor revision to UKSIC(92), in line with the latest revision of the European Union classification system.

2. The data presented for Scottish Manufactured Exports measure sales of goods produced by the Scottish Manufacturing sector for export outwith the UK. The Office for National Statistics collects the data used to produce these figures in their Monthly Production Inquiry. The data are deflated to 1995 prices using UK export producer price indices, which are also produced by the ONS.

3. The data are seasonally adjusted where appropriate. The series which are seasonally adjusted are Textiles, Footwear, Leather & Clothing, Drink, Food and Tobacco, Electrical & Instrument Engineering and Other Manufacturing Industries. The Scottish Executive has developed systems to seasonally adjust the series in line with standard National Statistics practice.

4. Estimates of Scottish Manufactured Exports are based on a sample of around 700 Scottish manufacturing exporters. This sample covers all sizes of unit across the manufacturing sector.

5. The data published in this news release are based on 1995 prices and current prices. There have been some revisions to the estimates published on 9 July 2003. These revisions have mainly been caused by the availability of updated information for some sectors and small changes in the seasonal factors. The revisions to the Transport Equipment series are due to revised ONS survey data. Tables 5-8 show revisions to the estimates previously published.

6. These figures only cover the manufacturing sector. The Scottish Development International sponsored annual estimates of total exports from Scotland produced in February 2003 by SCDI, indicate that the manufacturing sector accounted for 64 per cent of all exports from Scotland in 2001.

7. Due to the introduction of chainlinking and the forthcoming release of a new annual estimate for Scottish exports by the Scottish Executive, there is a need to integrate the quarterly Scottish Manufactured Exports series with these developments. This means that the Scottish Manufactured Exports series will be temporarily suspended, and that we are unable to announce the date for the next publication at this time. The date will be released according to the normal National Statistics pre-announcement procedures in due course.

8. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the National Statistics Code of Practice. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure that they meet customer needs. They are produced free from any political interference.

Mercury and Profile users may obtain a copy of the Index tables by telephoning the number below.

Issued by:
Office of the Chief Economic Adviser
Scottish Executive Finance & Central
Services Dept
St Andrew's House
Regent Road
Edinburgh EH1 3DG

Telephone:
Press Office:
Barry Winter
0141-244-2852
Statistician:
Julie Ramsay
0131-244-3771

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