The Scottish Government

Carole Millar Research

Main Findings

• The pedestrian casualty rate for boys is consistently higher than for girls across all age groups.
• The casualty rate for boys peaks at age 11 and for girls at age 12. It then declines by age for both sexes, although more markedly for boys. Correspondingly, as girls get older they account for an increasing share of accidents.
• The school journey is a significant factor affecting the child casualty rate, with the proportion having an accident on the school journey rising from 24% amongst the younger 5-11 age group to 38% amongst the older 12-15 age group. Child accidents drop during July in the school holidays. The transition from primary to secondary school when distances travelled to school increase appears to be a vulnerable time.
• Child pedestrian casualties peak between 3.00pm and 4.00pm coinciding with the end of the school day. There are also lesser peaks in the morning and in the lunch period.
• Children are more likely to become casualties during a weekday than at the weekend with Thursdays and Fridays being the peak days. As children get older, the proportion of accidents occurring on a Friday or Saturday rises steadily from 29% at age 12 to 38% at age 15.
• The older child is also more likely than the younger child to become a casualty in the evening. By age 15, the four hours between 7.00pm and 11.00pm account for almost the same proportion of casualties as the afternoon.
• The older child pedestrian is more likely than the younger child to be involved in an accident at a further distance from school or home and to become a casualty on busier and faster roads.
• Children are more likely to become a pedestrian casualty if they live in an urban rather than a rural area.
• The underlying causal behaviours and circumstances of accidents are quite different for boys and girls. The most common factor contributing to the accident was running and this was much more evident amongst male than female casualties.

The Research

Recent statistics indicate that fatal and serious pedestrian casualty rates amongst the 12-15 year group are now greater than for younger children in the 5-11 age group. The Scottish Office commissioned Carole Millar Research to explore the pedestrian casualty pattern amongst older children in Scotland with a view to informing road safety campaigns.

More specifically the research aimed to explore the nature and circumstances of accidents involving 12-15 year old pedestrians by examining the types and circumstances of each casualty and comparing these by gender and with the younger child pedestrian casualties. The aim was to identify underlying patterns of such accidents with a view to suggesting possible causes.

Methodology

The study was undertaken primarily by means of an examination of the data obtained by police and recorded on the form known as STATS 19. These records were examined for all of Scotland for the years 1994-1996. 3290 casualty records of 5-11 year olds and 1926 records of 12-15 year olds were examined. They included all severities of injury.

In addition, more detailed textual data was available for the Lothian and Borders police area and provided by the City of Edinburgh Council. This smaller sample provided information on the circumstances surrounding the accident and also information on the distance of the accident from the school and home address of the casualty. Full textual records were available for 277 accidents involving 282 pedestrian casualties between the age of 12 and 15.

It should be noted that since the textual descriptions do not follow any format, the absence of circumstantial evidence does not mean that this did not happen or was not present. It must be recognised that this data is partial and hence less reliable than findings of any research based on actual interviews or observed behaviour.

Results

Differences by Gender

Regardless of the age of the child, the rate of casualties for boys exceeds the rate for girls. This difference is most marked in the 5-11 age group but becomes less marked as the child enters teenage years.

The pedestrian casualty rate for boys peaks at age 11 and for girls at age 12. Although the rate then declines with age for both sexes it does so more markedly for boys. Girls therefore account for a greater proportion of casualties as they get older.

The School Journey

There is considerable evidence to suggest that the journey to and from school is a journey in which children suffer a relatively high incidence of accidents.

There was a notable difference between the two age groups in the proportions of children having accidents on the school journey, rising from 24% amongst the younger age group to 38% amongst the older age group. Twelve and thirteen year olds are the most vulnerable amongst the older age group. This is most marked for girls at age 12 when 48% of female casualties occur on the school journey.

The majority of child accidents that take place on the school journey occur within 500m of the school. As the children get older, the average distance of an accident from the school increases from just under half a kilometre in the younger group to just over a kilometre in the older group. Older boys are likely to be involved in accidents at a greater distance from school than girls.

The peak time for accidents, regardless of age group, is between 3.00pm and 4.00pm ­ a time coinciding with the end of the school day. There is also a smaller peak in the morning from 8.00am and 9.00am. and another one at lunchtime. This occurs in both the older and younger age groups although these peaks are much sharper for the older children. The following chart illustrates this and shows a comparison with the adult casualty profile by time of day.

For all children, accidents were more common during a weekday than at the weekend, with Thursdays and Fridays being the peak days in both the younger and the older child age groups. It might be hypothesised that this is affected by the traffic distribution with Thursdays and Fridays being shown by the National Traffic survey to be the two busiest days.

There is also a significant drop in the rate of accidents during the month of July, the only month of the year when children in Scotland are not at school for any part of the month.

The period of transition from primary to secondary would appear to be a vulnerable time. August represents a peak for the younger children, a time when they are starting a new school term. November shows a peak for the older children raising the hypothesis that they are have difficulty coping with travelling in darkness.

Increased Freedom

There is some evidence to suggest that as children enter their teenage years their enhanced freedom allows them to be further away from home and to be out in hours of darkness and adverse weather, conditions from which they would have been protected as younger children.

As children get older the proportion of casualties occurring on a Friday or Saturday rises steadily from 29% of casualties at age 12 to 38% at age 15.

The proportion of accidents occurring in the later evening is also higher than that shown by the younger children, and particularly so on a Friday and Saturday night. By age 15, 31% of accidents occur between 7.00pm and 11.00pm compared to 14% at age 12.

Older children are much less likely to sustain an accident in the immediate vicinity of their home than younger children. The likelihood of an accident occurring within 100m of home reduces markedly between the 5-11 age group and the 12-15 age group.

As children get older not only are they more likely to travel further from home, they also make use of busier and faster roads and hence encounter more hazardous conditions.

Children in urban areas are more likely to be a victim of a road traffic accident than those living in rural areas.

The majority of child accidents happen during daylight. However, the older children are more likely than the younger group to become casualties of road traffic accidents in darkness. There is a particularly large increase in the proportion of road traffic accidents involving girls during darkness, rising from 14% amongst the 5-11 age group to 25% of the 12-15 year olds.

Contributing Factors

The most common factor contributing to the accident was that the child was running at the time of the accident and it was more likely that a boy was running than a girl.

Other contributing factors were inattention, stepping onto the road and obstructions to the view of the road. Girls were more likely than boys to be affected by obstructions to the view of the road e.g. buses or other stationary vehicles.

Conclusion

Although the rate of female casualties increases in teenage years, there seems to be little evidence that this is due to an increasing tendency to emulate boys' behaviour. Indeed the evidence would suggest that the increasing freedoms of the teenage child bring with it a set of circumstances from which the boys have, to some extent, already learnt, thus causing their casualty rate to decline whereas the girls' rate increases. It could further be hypothesised that the girls' exposure to accident has been limited in their earlier years to a greater extent than boys and when given these freedoms they do not have the appropriate skill to cope with them.

Boys' accidents by contrast remain largely due to over exuberance leading to inattentiveness, thus maintaining their casualty rate at a level higher than girls at all ages. It could be argued that since their rate starts to decline in their teenage years, they deal better with the increased levels of hazards than the girls.

The school journey where the child pedestrian exposure is particularly high is a major factor affecting the incidence of accidents, with the peak time for accidents regardless of age group being between 3.00pm and 4.00pm.

Taking these two factors together suggests the need for a campaign directed at children as they leave primary and enter secondary school, with the appropriate messages directed at girls and boys.

The messages to girls may require to be different to that for boys, with any campaign directed at girls not merely encouraging greater attention whilst crossing the road but increasing awareness of the hazards on the roads and the more complex circumstances with which they are likely to be faced. Campaigns aimed at older boys should continue on the same theme as for younger boys, encouraging greater attention.

"The Older Child Pedestrian Casualty", the research report summarised in this Research Findings is available priced £5.00. Cheques should be made payable to The Stationery Office and addressed to:

The Stationery Office Bookshop, 71 Lothian Road, Edinburgh EH3 9AZ

Telephone: 0131-622 7050, or Fax: 0131-622 7017

This Research Findings may be photocopied, or further copies may be obtained from:

The Scottish Office Central Research Unit, 2J, Victoria Quay, Edinburgh EH6 6QQ

Telephone: 0131-244 7560