Why is this Purpose target important?
Population growth is a key contributor to, and a consequence of, a more vibrant society and a more dynamic economy. Scotland is projected to experience a significant demographic shift, leading to an increasing average age, caused by considerable increases in the over-60 age group, between now and 2031. Unless we increase labour participation rates among older people or attract more people of working age to Scotland, our economic growth will be adversely affected.
What will influence this Purpose target?
Population change in Scotland is determined by three key elements:
- Birth rates
- Life expectancy
- Net migration
These are, in turn, influenced by a combination of factors, including the relative levels of economic prosperity and opportunity, quality of life and the quality of public services supporting children and families and health.
What is the Government's role?
The Government can take several actions to encourage population growth in Scotland. These include:
- Learning, skills and well-being: an approach to health and well-being to ensure everyone maximises their physical and mental health while creating the conditions for talented people to live, work and remain in Scotland.
- Infrastructure development and place: a planning and development regime which fully takes account of the need to attract inward migration into Scottish communities and gives greater certainty and faster decision-making through the National Planning Framework.
- Equity: making the case for Scotland to have fuller responsibility for personal taxation and benefits in support of an approach to equity and boosting economic activity that fits with our circumstances.
How are we performing?
For Population Growth Target:
In every year over the period 1997 to 2007 the population of the EU15 has grown at a higher rate than the population of Scotland. However, from 2002-03 onwards this gap has narrowed considerably, as Scotland's population growth rate accelerated. The gap between annual population growth rates in Scotland and the EU15 decreased by 0.05 percentage points between 2005-06 and 2006-07.
Source: Eurostat, and General Register Office for Scotland
Methodology
This evaluation is based on: any difference in the gap within +/- 0.1 percentage points of last year's figure suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. A decrease in the gap of 0.1 percentage points or more suggests that the position is improving; whereas an increase in the gap of 0.1 percentage points or more suggests the position is worsening.
For information on general methodological approach, please click here.
For Healthy Life Expectancy Target:
Levels of healthy life expectancy for women and men have been gradually increasing since 1980. In 2007 healthy life expectancy for women was 70.2 years, whilst levels for men were 67.9 years. Average levels of healthy life expectancy increased by 0.4% between 2006 and 2007.
Source: Information Services Division Scotland
This evaluation is based on: any change in combined HLE within +/- 0.8% of last year's figure suggests that the position is more likely to be maintaining than showing any change. An increase in combined HLE of 0.8% or more suggests that the position is improving; whereas a decrease of 0.8% or more suggests the position is worsening.
Further Information
2007 Spending Review Technical Note
Statistics Topic Page